IPL 2009 Semi-finalists

There are 8 teams fighting for coveted 4 semifinal spots. Statistically, at the beginning of tournament, every team had odds of 1 in 2 for reaching semi finals. If IPL was about statistics, there would have been no craze. Every IPL fan has his own wish list while many cricket experts are predicting their last 4 teams.
In one of my earlier posts Controversies and Team Standings I analysed why it would be difficult for Royal Challengers and Knight Riders to go to semis. KKR are already out of contention - they have a thin chance; albeit theoretical. RC have won 2 out 3 after Pietersen left for national duty. RC has a good chance as they are placed better than MI and KXIP in points table but I still think they don't have momentum to go to semis.
Let us talk about the chances of other teams.
MI, one of the pre-tournament favourites, is languishing at 7th place. They have lost few close matches and have performed only in patches. They still have a chance but I think they will fall short.
DD and CSK, also pre-tournament favourites, have the best chance to go through the semis and I think they will. DD have taken a wrong step throughout the tournament while CSK are getting better with each game.
There will be fight for other 2 semi final spots between KXIP, RR and DC. I think KXIP and RR will take these 2 spots. They have the momentum on their side and they have turned some lost causes in their favour. Even though DC started strong and they still are one of the better placed team, I feel they would have a tough time.
Let's wait for final 4 while we enjoy the tournament.

Controversies and Team Standings

We are 10 days into IPL season 2. Every team has played at least 3 games. Though all teams look very strong on paper (as was the case in IPL 1) but few teams look better placed than others. Royal Challengers and Knight Riders are languishing at the bottom of team standings. It is still early days to predict the outcome of tournament but, in my opinion, these two teams are unlikely to go to semis.
These two teams have formidable players in their line-up who could walk into any international team, yet they are not able to win matches.
What is ailing these teams? I think team owners and controversies surrounding the teams are to blamed for their lacklustre performance.
BRC have had lesser controversies in this season, but it is apparent that controversies from last season are still haunting them like firing of Charu Sharma and undue pressure on Rahul Dravid when he was their best batsman. In this season they have unceremoniously stripped Rahul Dravid of captaincy. And who became captain - Pietersen. A person who was not thought to be team player, someone who was removed from English captaincy by English Board, someone who had public disagreements with his team coach.
KKR, on the other hand, are in news every other day; albeit for wrong reasons. Multiple captains, blog by an self proclaimed mystery insider, sending back of players are just a few controversies surrounding them. KKR had few controversies in IPL season 1 as well but their media mangement was better.
As long as the controversies surround these teams, they will not be able to perform well. Franchise owners, on their part, have to give team members and support staff some leevay and not put undue pressure on them. They just have to look at the performance of Mumbai Indians and King XI Punjab in IPL 1. Franchise owners never pressurised the team (even though there were rumors which didn't become controversies) when Sachin Tendulkar was sitting out due to injury or when high profile Punjab XI was losing initially. They can also look at Delhi Daredevils - their best bowler from IPL 1, Glenn McGrath, is not playing and still there is no controversy.

Multiple captains - Analysis from Cricinfo

This is a good article posted on Cricinfo about multiple captaincy issue by legendary Ian Chappel.
The one-captain theory

Early TAM results for IPL 2

TAM has measured TRP of opening matches of IPL 2 and compared it against the TRP from first edition. The TRP has declined substantially. Is it the vindication of analysis in my earlier post Television Viewership? Hardly! It is still early days. Who knows; Aamir Khan's Tata Sky ads are doing the trick? Seriously, TAM results are from only 2 matches. We need more data to arrive at a conclusion. I still think the TRP will decline in next 2-3 years before stabilizing.

Strategy Breaks

In last few days strategy breaks of IPL 2 have generated lot of controversy. The organizers introduced strategy breaks of 7.5 minutes in-between each innings of a match. Media has taken the organizers to the cleaners for its deemed commercial intent. Many eminent players have expressed that it beaks the momentum of players, especially the batsmen.
In my opinion, the players and media are right to an extant. Having said that, I still think, the breaks should not be discontinued. The strategy break, for cricket, is an innovation and an experiment. It will not be prudent to discontinue any experiment without running its full length. Only the negatives or opinions with negative connotations have been delivered by media so far but there are bound to be positives. Let's wait and watch. Mr. Modi was bang on target when he said that they will review this concept after the end of season. We all know that he has a sharp brain and great organizing abilities; let's not denounce him.
I think the breaks are good for viewers like myself. I am writing this post while enjoying the break in-between Punjab and Bangalore game. Of course there are other better ways to utilize the time.

Television viewership

IPL 1 was a huge success as measured by its TV ratings. Would IPL 2 be as successful? can it better the record set in 2008?
There have been some discussions about the TV viewership of IPL 2 will be better than its first season. In 2008 IPL sold worldwide broadcasting rights for a USD 1.1b for a period of 10 years. This year the deal was renegotiated and the rights were resold for remaining 9 years for USD 1.63b. The figures suggest that broadcasters are thinking that TV ratings would improve further. Moreover, it is generally thoght that, IPL 2 is being help outside the country so viewers will clamour to TV to catch the action; they do not have any other choice.
Whether the TV rating will improve, deteriorate or remain same is the moot question. In my opinion, the ratings will deterirorate for next 2-3 years before stabilizing. There was a huge curiosity about T20 in early 2008; especially after India became T20 world champions in 2007. There was a novelty aroung the tournanment and people just couldn't get enough of it. The city loyalty was just begining to take shape and there was no definite allegiance. This year the euphoria will diminish and people would stick to watching matches of their own team.
Only time will tell if prognosis and prediction are correct but one thing is for sure the city loyalty will slowly increase which is good for IPL.

Player Exchange - Ashish Nehra and Shikhar Dhawan

There was an exchange of few players before IPL season 2 started; a la European football clubs. The player exchange and transfer gives great opportunity to franchises improve their team strengths. At the same time players get a chance to improve their financial standing.
The news about exchange of Ashish Nehra and Shikhar Dhawan between Mumbai Indian and Delhi Daredevils go me interested. In last season, Daredevils' middle order performed poorly. Daredevils won matches when their top 3, including Shikhar Dhawan, performed and lost when 2 of the top 3 collectively had an off day. It looked, at first sight, a bit strange that Delhi Daredevils will forego Shikhar Dhawan who was a consistent performer especially when no-one else in middle order was performing. It is true that bringing Ashish Nehra will bolster bowling attack but in the last season Daredevils lost matches because of middle order and not because of bowling.
Analysing closely, I think, Delhi Daredevils management made the right choice. During last season middle order was rusty but it had quality batsmen. Now also the team has outstanding batsmen, both Indian and foreign imports. Now only if they can give credence to their name and put a few runs behind their back. It is not for nothing that Delhi Daredevils start as tournament favourites.

IPL Team Analysis

This is my first entry. I will post my views on day to day cricket events and news.

IPL season-2 will start today. Even before the tournament started, there has been lot of frenzy around it. As it was last year, there is more non-cricketing news than cricketing news. Media is calling it a tamasha. Well, is it a tamasha when so much serious money is being spent? In my opinion, barring a few good programs/articles, TV channels and newspapers have not provided good views on the tournament.

Consider this, almost all analysis about the team revolves around how many foreign players are associated with the team. The media has pronounced its predictions based solely on the quality and quantity of the foreign players. Only foreign players do not make up the team. Even if a team has 10-12 leading foreign players, a maximum of 4 can play in a game. 4 out 11 may even win a game or two but they, at max, can only influence a game. They complete the numbers but do not make the complete team. Moreover some foreign players will be available only for part of the tournament because of their national commitments.

In recent times, nationally or internationally, most team members contribute to the cause in the teams which have done well. A few examples are still fresh in our memory from IPL-1:

1. Rajasthan Royals - They won the tournament despite having no big names, on the strength of local Indian players. Even the players who were not known before the tournament, played a major role.

2. Delhi Daredevils - Foreign players, except Glenn, McGrath had very little role in their journey to Semis.

3. Deccan Chargers - Despite having high profile players and considered tournanment favourites, they finished at the bottom.

There are other smaller examples from the first edition. So the experts cannot do a good analysis unless they consider a probable playing 11.